For a lengthy, but comprehensive assessment of Putin's motivation for his actions against Ukraine, see: http://tinyurl.com/nd7lq5b
Archives for July 2014
Putin's Predicament
Stratfor has published an interesting analysis of the predicament Putin faces. One option for him to avoid being ousted as president is to escalate the crisis in Ukraine by invading it. See “Can Putin Survive,” republished with permission of Stratfor, at http://tinyurl.com/l9onlua
Given the events in Ukraine and the continuing interest among the participants in the Club, we will meet again on Monday July 28 at noon.
Update for July 21
Looks as if we will have a few things to talk about when we next meet on Monday 21 July at noon.
Here's a list of events since we last met:
6 Jul: Ukrainian forces retook Artemivsk and Druzhkivka. Several thousand attend pro-Russia rallied in Donetsk while Kiev announced blockade of both Donetsk and Luhansk.
12-14 July: Moscow claimed Ukraine fired artillery into Russia; Ukraine claimed AN-26 shot down by fighter jet or SAM. Neither was confirmed
14 Jul: US Dept of State issued Fact Sheet on Russian Intervention accusing Moscow of arming rebels. See http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/07/229270.htm
16 Jul: US unilaterally increased sanctions against Russia, targeting two banks (Gazprombank and VEB), and two energy firms (Novatek and Rosneft). Move bars access to US debt markets for loans over 90 days. EU blocked loans for new projects in RU, but not for existing contracts.
17 July: Malaysian Airline shot down over eastern Ukraine with almost 300 aboard. Each side blames the other, but initial reports indicate it was hit by a medium-range SAM probably the SA-11 or SA-17, not usually found in local Ukrainian gun stores.
Russia Discussion Club Tentative Calendar
In consultation with the staff, we have settled on the following dates and times for the Club to meet. The schedule is tentative because it is subject to change depending on world events, my schedule and member interest.
Mondays 12:00-1:00 in TA-1 on July 7, 21, and 28; August 25, September 15
Fridays 9:30-10:30 in the Annex on Sept 26, Oct 10, 24.
I find it rather hypocritical of Putin to castigate Poroshenko for using troops to pacify a rebellious province. Why is the Donbas different from Chechnya?